Microsoft's Windows 8 : Pondering The Launch Scenarios

Summary: Anyone who tells you he knows how fast Windows 8 will be adopted is lying. Microsoft deserves credit for its big bet on Windows 8, but the outcome is far from predictable. 

Ms releases Ms windows 8 this week the organization's mobile and product strategy relies on how the os is obtained. Perhaps the greatest crazy card is wondering how fast Ms windows 8 will be implemented.

The user interface is different. The components choices are all over the position. It's uncertain whether Ms windows 8 will be able to link mobile phones, Tablets and PCs. And no one knows how Windows Area or these newfangled several gadgets will stand up.

In other terms, anyone who claims how Ms windows 8 will play out in the industry is full of it. The Ms windows 8 release could be a simple binary event: It'll flourish or jump. Or Ms windows 8 may land somewhere in the middle.

For me, the components in the Ms windows 8 formula is a total get bag. As I mentioned on Wed, the Wintel environment is tossing gadgets up against a wall to see what stays. The gadgets that have centered around Ms windows 8 are numerous and unidentified merchandise.

On the software side of the formula, Ms windows 8 requires a learning bend. And some actions just aren't user-friendly. Ms windows 8 with a computer mouse irritates me. A touchscreen display screen laptop seems to perform well with the OS. I had to try a lot of gadgets to figure out which one would perform for me. Everyone will have to go through the same process.

Add it up and it's a jump of trust to just close your eyes and preorder something---including the Area. The people who preorder thoughtlessly may become the greatest experts of Ms windows 8.

I'm not going to hassle making some big forecast. If I were to think, I'd say Ms windows 8 will release, a few noisy folks will yell and a backlash will happen, testimonials will be so-so at best and then Ms windows 8 will eventually be implemented. Multiple experts will call Ms windows 8 a failing ahead of time and could be proven wrong.

With that backdrop it's worth pondering the rollout scenarios. Here's a look at the three scenarios in order of probability.
  • A flurry of activity and then a slow crawl. There's just no way that the average bear is going to get Windows 8 in just a few seconds. Windows 8 on a tablet works well. Windows 8 on a laptop or PC can annoy you. Half of the Windows 8 adopters will reside in desktop mode so the OS acts like Windows 7. Under this scenario, Microsoft will take a perception hit and then recover. Ultimately, Windows users will get on board with the latest release. It could take a year before Windows 8 gets its hero device that's mainstream. Under this scenario, Microsoft's Surface does ok, but isn't a cult favorite.
  • The big bang. Microsoft's Windows 8 adoption and buzz is carried by the Surface. Hardware partners are angry and flopping, but Microsoft's bet pays off. The worries about Windows 8's learning curve are overblown. People get it and Windows 8 pulls Windows Phone demand along. Microsoft executes on its multiscreen strategy and grabs some market share. In addition, Microsoft grows its app selection and developers see it as a viable mobile player. Nevertheless, the mobile world remains the domain of Apple and Google's Android. Microsoft becomes a solid No. 3 and enterprises put the software giant in their mobile plans.
  • Vista redux. Windows 8 stumbles out of the gate and makes no dent in the post-PC market. After early critics dominate the discussion, consumer word of mouth kills Windows 8. People with convertible tablet/laptop devices are openly mocked. Microsoft's influence wanes. After the Windows 8 debacle, Microsoft begins to ponder a breakup. Xbox is spun off in a unit. The consumer division separates from Microsoft's enterprise unit, which by the way carries the company going forward. Microsoft ceases to be everything to everyone and focuses on business technology.
Those three circumstances could eventually combination together and as regular the truth probably can be found somewhere between No. 1 and No. 2. A complete failing is possible, but Ms windows 8 is powerful. This perspective has been affected by my 10-year-old girl. I set up Ms windows 8 on an old laptop and passed it to her with one request: Tell me what you think?

On day one, she went with the pc method right away. She called the Ms windows 8 user interface strange. Two weeks later she was playing around with the Ms windows 8 user interface as the Ms windows seven perspective washed out away. In other terms, Ms windows 8 increased on her. Ms windows 8 probably still rankings behind Mac OS X and Ms windows seven, but has attraction. That Ms windows 8 adopting bend, however, may take time.
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